Special Report: E-paper Rising … Exploring Amazon Kindle rumors and sales estimates, and a tough, new player entering the e-book market.
Time stated that, “Some analysts estimate Kindle sales at around 55,000 a month.” Others have estimated that number to be significantly lower (5,000-10,000).
CitiGroup analyst Mark Mahaney recently projected that Amazon will bring in $400 million to $750 million in revenue from the Kindle by 2010 (based on the original price of $399), accounting for 1 percent to 3 percent of Amazon’s total revenue (originally reported on the www.TechCrunch.com blog).
Evan Schnittman, vice president of business development and rights for Oxford University Press’ academic and USA divisions, wrote in a recent blog (http://blog.oup.com): “By my calculations, combined sales of the Amazon Kindle and the Sony Reader will be 1 million units in 2008. This estimate is based on solid data.”
That data comes from Sony and Amazon’s purchase of e-ink screens (apparently they both shop at the same e-ink-screen store, Prime View International (PVI) of Taiwan), as reported in a daily news service, Digitimes. From Schnittman’s blog:
“Digitimes, a daily news service covering the Taiwanese IT market, reported on April 18 … that PVI expects [electrophoretic display (EPD)] module shipments to reach 120,000 units PER MONTH in the second half of 2008.”
Digitimes reported the current volume at 60,000-80,000 units PER MONTH and that 60 percent of the EPDs are shipped to Amazon and 40 percent to Sony. Schnittman wrote: “This … implies that there is a market beyond Kindle—a very, very strong market. Taking the figures at face value, Sony was selling (or at least manufacturing) an average of 28,000 readers per month (I took 70,000 units as the average sold per month and then 40 percent of that). Using this monthly rate, the annual sales of the Sony Reader are at nearly 350,000 units. Using the same formula, Amazon is ordering an average of 42,000 units per month, which will add up to over 500,000 units sold this year.”