What to Expect in 2015 (and Beyond)
Publishing is a pretty slow-moving business. That statement is solidly supported by the fact that the Kindle is now more than 7 years old and the majority of digital content revenue still comes from "print under glass" format. We're still basically consuming dumb content on smart devices, regardless of whether it's a book, a newspaper or a magazine.
Because the industry moves at a glacial pace I don't think we're likely to see any earth-shattering breakthroughs in 2015. What I do think we'll see are some seeds of change being planted and a few of the next steps in the industry's evolution.
With that in mind, here are five important developments I expect to see in 2015 and beyond:
- Content expansion in all-you-can-read subscription models - No, I'm not just talking about more book publishers participating in services like Oyster and Kindle Unlimited. That's a no-brainer. What I'm referring to here is that these book reading services will expand into other types of content, including newspapers, magazines, and born-digital content that currently sits behind a paywall. And as this happens, watch topic-based, vertical subscription options sprout up within the platforms (e.g., all-you-can-read subscriptions for sports enthusiasts, fiction fans, hobbyists, etc.) In short, these services become your all-access pass to all paid content forms for your particular area of interest.
- Content becomes smarter - Publishers have allergic reactions to phrases like "enriched content" or "content enhancement". That's largely because of failed experiments with native apps and tools that force a publisher to abandon their existing editorial and production workflows. Just as TV didn't stop with radio shows in front of a camera, the way content is produced, distributed and consumed will evolve and begin to leverage the smart devices consumers already own. Soon the e-editions will be more than just a cheap alternative to the print edition.
- Bundles and sponsorships drive more revenue - Consumers have been trained to expect lower prices for digital editions. Publishers like to blame Jeff Bezos for this but I believe there's plenty of blame to go around. After all, how many e-editions actually have less functionality than the print version? For example, have you ever tried sharing an ebook, digital newspaper or digital magazine with a friend after you're finished with it? Prices aren't going up anytime soon and publishers are anxiously searching for new income streams. Look for bundles and sponsorships to fill the void. That next money management ebook you buy might include an offer for a discounted (or free) subscription to Fortune magazine, for example. Or perhaps that same ebook is offered at a lower price for the month of April thanks to a sponsorship from Charles Schwab. The possibilities are endless.
- Successful brands will no longer defined by containers - What are the first things that come to mind when you think of the ESPN and Sports Illustrated brands? I'll bet it's "television or cable channel" for the former and "magazine" for the latter, despite the fact that both have thriving websites, apps, and other digital properties. But that's precisely why a brand like Bleacher Report can come out of nowhere and draw so much interest and traffic. Yesterday's brands are often tightly coupled with containers like books, newspapers, magazines, and TV while the most popular, highly valued brands of tomorrow will have no particular container affiliation. In fact, being tied to a specific container will be a major drawback in the future.
- Content reuse surges - Today it's almost considered a gimmick when content can be redeployed in new manner. Book content is sold in pieces and collections of short-form articles get remixed, becoming long-form content products. This is a tiny revenue source today, but that's largely because content isn't being acquired and developed with reuse in mind. Eventually every piece of content will be looked at through the lens of reuse. This means that every piece of content will be part of multiple products from the start. Compare that to today's model where reuse is typically an afterthought and redeployment doesn't happen for months or years after the content was first published.
What do you think of these five items? Agree? Disagree? Are there other areas I'm overlooking that you believe will strongly influence the publishing industry in 2015 and beyond?