E-book sales continue to grow, and some in the industry anticipate an e-book era is near.

By Brian R. Hook

What Does the Digital Future Hold for Publishers?

If you’re not wondering what’s in store for publishers in the digital future, you may very well be the only one. Fortunately, major efforts to study and forecast the impacts of today’s and tomorrow’s digitally inclined world have been under way, and some answers are at hand.

The Center for the Digital Future—part of the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School for Communication—recently released a report called “2007 Digital Future Report,” presenting findings from six years of studying Internet use.

Dr. Jeffrey Cole,director of the Center for the Digital Future, will present the results of this study—and how they apply to publishing—at the 2007 Book Business Conference and Expo

(www.BookBusinessExpo.com) in “What the Digital Future Holds for Publishers.” Book Business asked Cole—who is frequently called upon for his insights into mass media by corporations, such as Microsoft and Time Warner, and has testified a number of times in front of Congress on communication issues—a few questions to give Book Business readers’ a sneak peek into the results of the study.

Book Business: What are one or two points from the study of which book publishers should be aware?

Jeffrey Cole: To this point, book reading seems to be one of the only media that is not affected by Internet use. Internet users spend the same amount of time reading books as non-users. The case is very different than for television viewing, or newspaper and magazine reading. While books have not been affected by Internet use, this is a time for publishers to plan and take advantage of new challenges and opportunities rather than remaining complacent. Things will change, but that change can be a real opportunity to get far more people buying and reading than before the Internet.

Would you suggest publishers take a hard look at making their content available online, or are books still different from magazines and newspapers in that most people prefer to read from a hard copy?

Cole: People think they prefer reading [books] from a hard copy. This is an age thing, and it will be difficult (but not impossible) to get [people] over 30 to read electronically. Teens are already getting used to reading electronically, so change is coming.

How likely are e-books to continue to grow in popularity, and what role do you expect Sony’s Reader to play?

Cole: Online reading will grow exponentially over the next 15 years as teens mature, and as today’s current adults become somewhat more comfortable with electronic reading. Sony’s new Reader is a remarkable device in its convenience and reading quality. It remains to be seen whether Sony will market this device properly to people who do not realize they want it.

E-books may still be only a small part of the total publishing market, but e-book sales are growing, and many expect big things for the format in the near future.

EBooks Corporation Ltd., which provides more than 70,000 e-book titles to consumers at eBooks.com, estimates that the e-book market hit $130 million in 2006, and expects it to reach $220 million this year. “Five years out, the total e-book market will be between $3 billion and $5 billion,” projects Stephen Cole, managing director of eBooks, which has partnerships with 327 publishers worldwide, including Random House, Simon & Schuster, Zondervan, Dell, Warner Books and Oxford University Press.

Cole says this projection is based on several factors, including eBooks’ performance, its knowledge of its competitors’ business, and its own industry analysis.

“As e-book adoption accelerates, it will be interesting to see what happens to existing high-street retail booksellers, and especially the multibillion-dollar wholesalers,” Cole says. “The major operators in the traditional channels are asleep at the wheel. The barbarians are at the gates, having prepared themselves for years for this moment.”

Other market reports’ figures are lower than eBooks’ estimates. An Association of American Publishers’ (AAP) report places U.S. gross e-book sales for 2006, as of October, at $22 million, showing a 26.2 percent increase over the $17.4 million reported at the same point in 2005.

While trade and standards association International Digital Publishing Forum (IDPF) doesn’t have 2006 figures available yet, its figures for 2005 indicate sales of 1.6 million e-book units, totaling $11.8 million.

These e-book sales figures compare to the industry’s overall book sales of $25.1 billion, according to AAP.

Nick Bogaty, IDPF executive director, says the e-book market is hard to estimate because it is in its early stages. He expects significant growth in trade, education and library sales. “The market should at least double in 2007,” Bogaty says.

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Are the E-book ‘Barbarians at the Gate’?